Energy Policy & Diplomacy

US–Russia Diesel Supply Deal: President Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to supply diesel to the global oil market (starting with 300,000+ metric tons, expanding up to 3 million metric tons). The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a temporary general license authorizing transactions through April 7, 2027.
Ukrainian Backlash: Ukrainian President Zelenskiy criticized the deal, stating that allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an "investment in war" and that easing sanctions will not bring peace. Ukrainian officials expressed surprise over the announcement.
Trump Administration Energy Directives: President Trump plans to issue a directive/memo utilizing the Defense Production Act to expand oil and fuel production, lower diesel costs, and bypass local or state regulatory hurdles blocking energy projects. In trade talks, Trump also pressured Mexican President Sheinbaum for greater US–Mexico energy partnerships.

Geopolitics & Military Operations

Hormuz & Gulf Disruptions: Trump noted that 28 million barrels of oil were removed from Hormuz yesterday. Gulf oil production faced severe disruptions, with shutdowns reported at 72% for oil (1.5M bpd) and 59% for gas (1.3 Bcf/d).
Middle East Military Action: Israeli forces (IDF) launched an airstrike targeting a Syrian operative directed by Iran. Local sources reported air defense exercises near Yazd, Iran.

Google Gemini 4 'Carbon': Google staff are reportedly testing a new version of Gemini 4, codenamed "Carbon."
Microsoft AI: CEO Satya Nadella announced "Microsoft-decision-1," a new decision-focused AI model currently undergoing internal testing across Microsoft.
EU AI Governance: EU Tech leadership stated that existing landmark rules position the bloc to effectively manage risks from rogue AI agents.

Net Market On-Close (MOC) sell imbalance stood at -$771 million for the S&P 500 and -$310 million for the Nasdaq 100. Recent CFTC data showed speculators increasing net short positions in S&P 500 futures and select Treasury futures.